Yes 2019 is now a BIG winter
Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2019 9:46 am
Today is February 19, 2019. After 3 series of large cold multi day systems, the Sierra Nevada snowpack is now over 150% of average for this date. And at lower mid forest elevations it is more above normal as the recent storms have been exceptionally cold. Long range forecasts now suggest more storms will continue to march across the Pacific and into the range over the next several weeks so the snow pack may even become deeper. At this point we can confidently state our summer backpacking season will not be normal and instead most likely to follow historic big winters like 1982, 1986, 1995, 2011, 2017. That noted it is possible a warm tropical pineapple express AR event could still occur and reduce pack depths below 8k. Above that, snow is now so deep that even wet storms will only just soak in.
Those making summer backpacking plans must thus adjust pushing back dates a few weeks. Terrain at elevations that are usually snow free and greening at dates, especially without sun exposures will takes weeks longer to melt out. Highways and roads to reach trailheads will remain closed into early summer making access for some already reserved trips impossible. Larger streams may be dangerous or impassable. Timberline lakes may be accessible though still frozen. Usual camping spots even if snow free may be muddy and or puddles of water. Trails along timberline canyon bottoms may be buried under enormous piles of avalanche debris full of huge snapped trees. Backpacking passes and especially north facing cross country passes may require ice axe and or crampons. Mosquito season will last much longer including into August about meadow and forest areas. Wildflowers and greenery will be delayed in rising. Trail quotas for mid and late season will quickly reserve out while early summer permittees will often end up canceling. Stories will make news and blogs of PCT and JMT thru hikers getting into trouble and worse.
Those making summer backpacking plans must thus adjust pushing back dates a few weeks. Terrain at elevations that are usually snow free and greening at dates, especially without sun exposures will takes weeks longer to melt out. Highways and roads to reach trailheads will remain closed into early summer making access for some already reserved trips impossible. Larger streams may be dangerous or impassable. Timberline lakes may be accessible though still frozen. Usual camping spots even if snow free may be muddy and or puddles of water. Trails along timberline canyon bottoms may be buried under enormous piles of avalanche debris full of huge snapped trees. Backpacking passes and especially north facing cross country passes may require ice axe and or crampons. Mosquito season will last much longer including into August about meadow and forest areas. Wildflowers and greenery will be delayed in rising. Trail quotas for mid and late season will quickly reserve out while early summer permittees will often end up canceling. Stories will make news and blogs of PCT and JMT thru hikers getting into trouble and worse.