Early Season HST 2020.

[hurricaniac]

Be aware that if you go to GCT, the bridge at Pate Valley was pretty much gone in 2018, I haven't heard if it's been rebuilt. Unless this year is really low snow pack and melts off early, there will be a LOT of water coursing thru there making wading pretty much impossible. Then you have to turn around and the exits either direction are punishing.

[Wandering Daisy]

All the good stuff is upstream from the Pate Valley Bridge, and once down into Pate Valley you have to go up a lot of elevation regardless of the bridge being open or not. Because of uncertainty of the bridge condition, you definitely should avoid doing the route from White Wolf. In my opinion, going out to White Wolf if coming in from Tuolumne, has little value other than it saves a day. Unless you have two cars, getting back to Tuolumne can also be a pain. I have done the GCT both directions and also an in-and-out from Tuolumne to Pate Valley. As long as you plan to come back out to Tuolumne, you should have a fine trip.

Sad for the Sierra, but seeing how the weather is turning out, it looks like your original plan for the HST may just work out anyway.

[c9h13no3]

Sad for the Sierra, but seeing how the weather is turning out, it looks like your original plan for the HST may just work out anyway.

Yeah, we're already starting to get sun cups in south facing really flat areas. It's gonna be a below average year no matter what given how dry February was, 50% of average as of today. It's possible that March may boost us up to a more normal snow pack, but NOAA is still forecasting a below average month.

Good year for hiking I guess.

[oldranger]

All the good stuff is upstream from the Pate Valley Bridge, and once down into Pate Valley you have to go up a lot of elevation regardless of the bridge being open or not. Because of uncertainty of the bridge condition, you definitely should avoid doing the route from White Wolf. In my opinion, going out to White Wolf if coming in from Tuolumne, has little value other than it saves a day. Unless you have two cars, getting back to Tuolumne can also be a pain. I have done the GCT both directions and also an in-and-out from Tuolumne to Pate Valley. As long as you plan to come back out to Tuolumne, you should have a fine trip.

Sad for the Sierra, but seeing how the weather is turning out, it looks like your original plan for the HST may just work out anyway.

I don't often disagree with Daisy but In my not so humble opinion the campsite just above where Morrison Creek crosses the trail from White Wolf down to Pate valley is a worthy destination in itself. The slabs of rock with large erratics below the site and the views into the canyon are amazing. I camped there once because of a late start and on my return stoped again early in the day on the way out because it was so enchanting. my destination on that trip was the lakes near Pleasant Valley. They are relatively low elevation and were open in early June of 2009. That was early in the season either day of or day after the tioga pass road opened and the road to WW was still gated so I left my car parked along side the Tioga Road for at least a week with my old fart pass stuck in the window.Here are some views from and of the campsite

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[Lumbergh21]

I see that the Trinity Alps were mentioned earlier. In 2016 and 2018, low snow years, I went on short on-trail trips at the end of May. This is shaping up as a low snow year again, and I'm planning on an early season trip again, potentially even mid-May. Now this isn't to say that all of the Trinities will be open to easy on-trail travel by the end of May, but IMO it is trending towards much of it being doable. If you are interested, I'd be happy to give some recommendations for the most Sierra-like (or Sierra-lite) hikes up here.

[BaneSierras]

Sad for the Sierra, but seeing how the weather is turning out, it looks like your original plan for the HST may just work out anyway.

Yeah, we're already starting to get sun cups in south facing really flat areas. It's gonna be a below average year no matter what given how dry February was, 50% of average as of today. It's possible that March may boost us up to a more normal snow pack, but NOAA is still forecasting a below average month.

Good year for hiking I guess.

Oh man, mixed emotions about this. Not great news for California but might as well take advantage of it.

Definitely going to pull permits and see what happens in March and April.

We are actually really looking forward to the Golden Trout Wilderness too though so either way it's a win.

Thanks again to everyone

[bobby49]

"Good year for hiking I guess."

But it may be a bad year for wildflowers. The wildflower season will be earlier and short.

[BaneSierras]

Found this entertaining (and a little sad) animated snow depth map. Wondering everyone's thoughts on it. Is the information as reliable as it is entertaining? Seems to be shaping up similar to 2012 which looked hikeable by June 1, 2012.


https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/js_anim ... rra_Nevada


https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/js_anim ... rra_Nevada

[c9h13no3]

Seems to be shaping up similar to 2012 which looked hikeable by June 1, 2012.

That's not a bad comparison, but it's still too early to tell. Use this link to play around with the graph below, but we have more snow in 2020 than we did in 2012. And March is still an accumulation month, check out 2018. It's going to be a below average year, but June 1st is still aggressively early.

[attachment=0]SouthernSierraSnow.PNG

[Wandering Daisy]

The DWR data is specifically designed for water resource assessment; still very useful for backpackers but for us, the bottom line is the amount of snow on the ground June 1, regardless of the amount April 1 (which is used to determine the official "snowpack"). The NWS 6-month predictions are for a hotter than average spring and early summer, which would melt the snow faster, so what is left on the ground June 1 could be less than 2012 in spite of more overall snow. Also, the DWR data sites are concentrated in the lower and mid-elevation Sierra so not as helpful for conditions above 11,000 feet.

OMG, it is 80 degrees places in California today! And it is only the first week in March! The odd late snows that fall in late May and early June in the high Sierra, impact for a few days, but melt off quickly so would impact a June 1 HST only if you happened to be out those few days. At any rate all these long range predictions are only probabilities. We have to wait and see. Unfortunately the current system makes "wait and see" a permit issue.