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WEATHER ALERT 8/30

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WEATHER ALERT 8/30

Postby maverick » Tue Aug 29, 2017 12:11 pm

Keep an eye on the low pressure tropical system near Baja, which could strengthening and become a tropic storm. If it finds its way close enough to the US, some of the moisture could get caught up in the monsoonal flow, bringing heavy rain, flash floods, and thunderstorms to the Sierra Nevada by this coming holiday weekend.
I don't give out specific route information, my belief is that it takes away from the whole adventure spirit of a trip, if you need every inch planned out, you'll have to get that from someone else.

Have a safer backcountry experience by using the HST ReConn Form 2.0, named after Larry Conn, a HST member: http://reconn.org



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WEATHER ALERT 9/1 UPDATE

Postby maverick » Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:40 am

The above mention low pressure system, is now Tropical Storm Lidia, moving up the Baja coast, keep on eye on it folks, it has a lot of moisture in it, its remnants could impact the Sierra Nevada.

Please take this seriously, severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are a really possibility, if this thing feeds into the current monsoonal flow impacting the Sierra, all this and next week, things could get really wild in the mountains!
I don't give out specific route information, my belief is that it takes away from the whole adventure spirit of a trip, if you need every inch planned out, you'll have to get that from someone else.

Have a safer backcountry experience by using the HST ReConn Form 2.0, named after Larry Conn, a HST member: http://reconn.org
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Re: WEATHER ALERT 8/30

Postby The hermit » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:12 am

hopefully it will help with the fires
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Re: WEATHER ALERT 8/30

Postby maverick » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:39 am

Yes, that would be nice, but unfortunately it could start more fires if moisture levels are not high enough. :(
Percipitation levels are now predicted at a 30% average starting Sunday thru next Fri and southeast winds are domininating the first part of the week, then changing to southwestern direction the rest.

NWS Hanford:

Models show Tropical Storm Lidia moving up along Baja California toward SouthernCalifornia. While the lag in temperature change will keep the heat over the district through Sunday, a cooling trend will begin on Monday as the region feels the effects of T. S. Lidia.

In the meanwhile, satellite-IR imagery is already showing T. S. Lidia moving northwestward before curving toward the Pacific
Ocean on Monday. Short term model analysis show the coastal areas more favored in the area of quantitative precipitation due to the coastal mountain ranges. Therefore, while models show precipitation reaching the district as early as Sunday afternoon, only light rain will favor the district as models also show the track of Lidia curving toward the ocean after cross the San Diego area. Yet, the influx of moisture will allow for better chances of thunderstorm development during the Sunday and possibly the Monday time frame. In addition, the initial northward surge of moisture may see an increase in cloud cover later this afternoon.

Looking further out in time, longer range models place Lidia 500 miles Northwest of Santa Barbara by Tuesday. Models than show Lidia possibly getting caught up in the flow pattern of a high amplitude trof extending South from the Gulf of Alaska. What remains of Lidia is then progged to push into Northern California late on Wednesday before the trof itself moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest and Northern California late on Thursday. Models show the associated cold front possibly pushing into the region by Friday. While the influence of Lidia will start the cool trend felt across the region, the passage of a trof and associated cold front will re-enforce the cooling felt across the west. Yet, will have to see how much cooling will occur as the district may continue to see high temperatures reaching the 90 degree mark into next weekend.
I don't give out specific route information, my belief is that it takes away from the whole adventure spirit of a trip, if you need every inch planned out, you'll have to get that from someone else.

Have a safer backcountry experience by using the HST ReConn Form 2.0, named after Larry Conn, a HST member: http://reconn.org
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Re: WEATHER ALERT 8/30

Postby webdweeb » Sat Sep 02, 2017 2:09 pm

Maverick, I've got two permits for the end of next week: one for Cedar Grove (Wood's Creek and the Rae Lakes Loop), and the other for Cottonwood Pass (several options in that area, but most likely a route that takes in Miter Basin and the Cottonwood Lakes basin, with a possible ascent of Mt. Langley). Given that the storms are moving north, my inclination is to go with the CWP option, since the monsoonal and TS activity will be gone from that area sooner (but maybe not by the time we would start). Does that make sense to you?
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Re: WEATHER ALERT 8/30

Postby maverick » Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:21 am

TS activity is supposed to be all week, into next weekend, so it may not really matter which location you choose, though some models indicate that rain chances subside as we get towards the weekend, in some locations.

Don't let this forecast deter you from going, just plan accordingly, set up camp locations, with the possiblity of heavy periods of rain in mind, and do any peakbagging as early in the day as possible.
I don't give out specific route information, my belief is that it takes away from the whole adventure spirit of a trip, if you need every inch planned out, you'll have to get that from someone else.

Have a safer backcountry experience by using the HST ReConn Form 2.0, named after Larry Conn, a HST member: http://reconn.org
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Re: WEATHER ALERT 8/30

Postby webdweeb » Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:57 pm

Thanks-I am seeing more forecasts that show a clearing trend for both areas, so maybe we will get lucky and avoid the worst of the storm activity. We definitely are not scrubbing this mission, just debating on which option to take.
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Re: WEATHER ALERT 8/30

Postby maverick » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:11 pm

Monsoonal Flow will continue into Wed, especially heavy rains possible, flash flooding possible, on Tue.

Was out between 9/6-9/10, every day had either, hail, wet snow, light snow, heavy rain, and strong wind gusts (25-30 mph).

Be prepared, have a fun and safe trip! :)
I don't give out specific route information, my belief is that it takes away from the whole adventure spirit of a trip, if you need every inch planned out, you'll have to get that from someone else.

Have a safer backcountry experience by using the HST ReConn Form 2.0, named after Larry Conn, a HST member: http://reconn.org
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Re: WEATHER ALERT 8/30

Postby cgundersen » Mon Sep 11, 2017 2:40 pm

Hi Mav,
Joy & I were debating getting out and pulled up due to the weather; sounds like you got everything shy of hurricane Irma! And, we're headed to Irma country early next week........so, maybe the mountains will calm down in late Sept? Not betting on that! cameron
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Re: WEATHER ALERT 8/30

Postby maverick » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:08 pm

This was some of the energy that was leftover from Tropical Storm Linda, that impacted Baja California.

PS We are getting humid weather in the SF Bay Area right now, with thunder and lightening, and rain in some areas.
I don't give out specific route information, my belief is that it takes away from the whole adventure spirit of a trip, if you need every inch planned out, you'll have to get that from someone else.

Have a safer backcountry experience by using the HST ReConn Form 2.0, named after Larry Conn, a HST member: http://reconn.org
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