Current Snow from the Valley up to Tuolumne Meadows

[Harlen]

Searching NOAA forecasts daily in hopes of a break in the snowy and stormy weather, I thought I had found it beginning tomorrow- Monday the 9th. Up to 6 feet have fallen up high since the Thanksgiving storm systems moved through. There have been few of the warm, clear days that make for a nice skiable surface through melt - freeze, along with the basic settling of the new snow. So what will it be like out there right now? How many snow-free days till it's skiable?

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I think most snow folks know that the right answer is "it varies." How warm did it get during the days? How cold were the nights? Cloud cover? Wind? ... and what was the character of the snow that fell during those storms- wet, dry? I know that I don't know enough to give my ski partner Frank a definite answer when he asks if we should head for the Tuolumne Ski Hut early Monday morning. Ever the optimist, he says: we'll take turns breaking trail... we'll take the sleds." I was willing to try, since Monday looked so bright and sunny in the NOAA forecast symbol, but I thought it would probably be a horrendous slog! Snow fell through Saturday, and today -Sunday- was cloudy and cold. Night-time low temp was 9º, so not much settling, and no melt-freeze hardening. Luckily, I just got a return call from YNP staff, who informed me that the ski huts won't be opening till this Friday- 12/13. That includes the Snow Creek Hut, the TM Hut, and Ostrander Hut off the Glacier Pt. Rd. (Note: the Badger Ski Resort and the Glacier Road are also opening/ being plowed that same day.) Frank loves the huts because he hates "14 bleeding hours, tossing and turning in the &*$%#@& sleeping bag!" as he puts it, in 'is 'eavy, Lancashire accent. Winter nights are indeed long, but I sleep better than he does. With the huts not open, and decent looking weather forecast for Wed.- Friday, we got a reprieve.

Anyone want to give a best guess forecast for the snow surface conditions we will find from the Valley floor to Tuolumne Meadows on Thursday-Friday?

I'm guessing we'll cruise through patchy snow up the Snow Cr. Trail, and then, when we meet the road (@ ~8,400') around Olmstead Point, we will be breaking trail to a depth of 6-10", with never an inch of glide, cursing and suffering all the rest of the way to T. Meadows. I think we will barely make it to the hut (~22 miles) on the third day! [*ever the pessimist]

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But it sure is a nice destination.

[rlown]

Go in from the East entrance?

[Harlen]

rlown writes:

Go in from the East entrance?

A very tempting idea. Which we considered, but balked on, due to the fear of avalanches. Russ is right that it shaves 5 miles off the trip to the hut, and perhaps somewhat less snow fell on the lower eastern slopes, but the snow that hangs over much of the route up Hwy 120 is notorious for avalanches. The first 48 hours or so after heavy snowfall is when a large percentage of avalanches occur. The preferred eastern approach during questionable conditions is Bloody Canyon-Mono Pass. I've skied in this way, and it's beautiful- see photos: but there is still some avie risk near the top, on the east side of pass. Now that we are going in on Thursday, we may consider this route again.

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Lower slopes in Bloody Canyon.

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Lower Sardine Lake, with the route to Mono Pass above. This trip was in January, in a very low snow year.

[Wandering Daisy]

There are websites on avalanche danger. Unfortunately, this one does not regularly start reporting until Dec 20. Tahoe NF has a site, but that is too far north.

https://www.esavalanche.org/

[Wandering Daisy]

There are websites on avalanche danger. Unfortunately, this one does not regularly start reporting until Dec 20. Tahoe NF has a site, but that is too far north.

https://www.esavalanche.org/

https://www.sierraavalanchecenter.org/

[rlown]

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/dynamicapp/QueryF?s=TES current conditions at Tioga. You can look at the data and interpolate what you think the conditions will be.

A friend and I did an Eastern entry right up 120 in January decades ago. We hit 60mph winds which meant we were hiking uphill until Ellery and the wind died. Snow was wiped clean off 120 until we got to the entry station.
There were some monster rocks on 120 but we were in our 20's and just kept slogging. One of my best and scariest trips ever.

You never see the rock that hits you. That's what makes it exciting to a point.

Have a good trip either way you go..

[rlown]

This hut is also nice.. https://clairtappaanlodge.com/peter-grubb-hut

[Harlen]

WD wrote:

There are websites on avalanche danger. Unfortunately, this one does not regularly start reporting until Dec 20. Tahoe NF has a site, but that is too far north.
https://www.esavalanche.org/

Thanks Nancy.
I do check this advisory regularly, though I had not seen yesterday's. They are already doing considerable work in the Eastern Sierra, just not providing the Risk Assessment part. If you click on "read entire advisory" you get quite a lot of info. For example, the following:

Heavy snowfall and strong winds will continue throughout the day on Saturday as a winter storm makes its way through the area. Total Snow accumulations of 1-3 feet are expected by midday on Sunday above 7000’ throughout the forecast area with the bulk of the precipitation expected at upper elevations. Strong southerly winds will accompany this snowfall with gusts as high as 90mph at upper elevations and 50mph at lower elevations.

The storm will intensify throughout the day on Saturday, with the most intense snowfall expected on Saturday night. Very strong winds will continue throughout the evening with a chance of Thunderstorms on Saturday night.

They go on to detail the various risk factors. I love this site! (and contribute $50.00 to it per year.)

[Harlen]

Have a good trip either way you go..

Thanks Russ... you too!

[c9h13no3]

The Tahoe skiers I follow have either been cursing the wet manky snow below 8000', or setting off wind slabs above 9000.

https://www.instagram.com/p/B5wKuXMpggB ... q2d70dbqwx

Course, I'm in Lake Louise right now, where we have the opposite problem: the powder is so light that its thigh deep and I'm still hitting rocks and wrecking my skis.