Planning for the Weather

Questions and reports related to Sierra Nevada current and forecast conditions, as well as general precautions and safety information. Trail conditions, fire/smoke reports, mosquito reports, weather and snow conditions, stream crossing information, and more.
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freestone
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Re: Planning for the Weather

Post by freestone »

Finally, after weeks and weeks of boring weather, something interesting may happen next week. Heatwave in the PNW and monsoon over California, so if you like to be in the Sierra during a monsoon push, next week will be your chance! TS Enrique could really juice it up as well, its forecast is to ride up the coast rather than west toward Hawaii.

https://mammothweather.com/. https://weatherwest.com/archives/9778
Short cuts make long delays. JRR Tolkien
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maverick
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Re: Planning for the Weather

Post by maverick »

Finally, after weeks and weeks of boring weather, something interesting may happen next week. Heatwave in the PNW and monsoon over California, so if you like to be in the Sierra during a monsoon push, next week will be your chance! TS Enrique could really juice it up as well, its forecast is to ride up the coast rather than west toward Hawaii.
I have been watching the weather models all month, including Enrique's path, waiting for the monsoonal flow to kick in this year. Still, as happy as I am about finally seeing it come and hopefully getting out and photograph in it next week, I am worried about the likelihood of numerous wildfires being started next week.
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I don't give out specific route information, my belief is that it takes away from the whole adventure spirit of a trip, if you need every inch planned out, you'll have to get that from someone else.

Have a safer backcountry experience by using the HST ReConn Form 2.0, named after Larry Conn, a HST member: http://reconn.org
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aaron_in_sf
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Re: Planning for the Weather

Post by aaron_in_sf »

Was planning to start the High Sierra Trail on the 29th and go north… Would someone with a better eye for reading the forecast care to comment on whether that would be a bad idea? I saw probability of up to a quarter inch of rain for example when I’d be around say precipice lake…

…No aversion to moody weather, or getting rained on; and the wind doesn’t look too bad… More wondering whether the chance of thunderstorms makes planning multiple nights at high altitude and crossing passes foolhardy; Especially when once I’m in, I am in…
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bobby49
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Re: Planning for the Weather

Post by bobby49 »

You generally don't spend a lot of time hovering at the pass, especially if there is a storm approaching.

A couple of years ago I was on the Whitney summit, and I could look off to the west and see a storm coming that way. So, I kind of announced to the 40-50 people on the summit that there was a storm and that they ought to get the hell off the summit. I immediately started marching downhill, and I got to the last trail junction as the first rain drops were hitting. It was cracking and booming around the summit.
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dave54
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Re: Planning for the Weather

Post by dave54 »

Reference works and primers on weather:
https://www.nwcg.gov/publications/pms425-1 A basic textbook for weather, aimed at firefighters.

https://www.nwcg.gov/publications/pms437 The section on weather has information you may find interesting. The rest is nerdy and aimed at fire behavior predictions

https://www.nwcg.gov/sites/default/file ... pms438.pdf A printable cloud chart
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SSSdave
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Re: Planning for the Weather

Post by SSSdave »

Mother Nature may be celebrating The Fourth of July a bit early this summer...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
241 PM PDT Mon Jun 20 2022

...The biggest change in the long term was to increase the
thunderstorm chances Wednesday through Sunday, as the southwest
monsoon starts up for the season. Ensemble guidance is hinting
at an earlier push of a subtropical plume of mid-level moisture
into the Eastern Sierra Wednesday and further northward across
western Nevada Thursday.

* Strong daytime heating and convergence along terrain will promote
convection initiation each afternoon Wednesday through Sunday.
Wednesday isolated thunderstorms will be possible from Mono-
Mineral, north along the Sierra, and into Lassen County. By
Thursday, a closed low off the southern California coast looks to
move into central California, providing mid-to-upper level cooling
and a boost in MUCAPE. This low will help scattered thunderstorms
to develop across much of far western Nevada, northeast
California, and the Sierra Thursday afternoon and evening. Friday
through Sunday, much of the thunderstorm action looks to be
confined to the Sierra and Sierra Front from Reno southward into
Mono-Mineral counties.
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aaron_in_sf
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Re: Planning for the Weather

Post by aaron_in_sf »

Looking pretty monsoony this week. Was going to go to Ansel Adams via Lyell but it’s looking too gnarly for my blood. Thunderstorms in the forecast every day put me in mind of running down the River Trail last year when lightening came in around Thousand Island Lake. Not eager to reprise.
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