Looking Like a Dry February

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rs44
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Looking Like a Dry February

Post by rs44 » Fri Jan 31, 2020 3:36 pm

Brief flurry of snow on Sunday, along with frigid temperatures, followed by a decently strong high-pressure ridge off the West Coast that will deflect most storms coming from the west Pacific.

Slight chance that the ridge moves further west, which would allow storms to slide around it and hit CA/the Sierra.

SWC already < 75% of statewide average :/

https://weatherwest.com/archives/7132








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Harlen
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Re: Looking Like a Dry February

Post by Harlen » Mon Feb 17, 2020 7:34 pm

Where's the snow?! rs44, your optimistic hope that the high pressure ridge might have moved west, and allowed snow storms to move into our Sierra didn't pan out did it? Damn. Here is the most recent weather discussion from the folks at the Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center:
The last significant snowfall we’ve had was now a month ago on January 16th when it snowed ~9”. Periods of extreme winds from every direction over the past month and a half have led to a moon-scape on exposed slopes of cratered sastrugi snow to firm and breakable windboards. Our shallow snowpack is hanging on. Northerly facing slopes show little change in depth, while sunny aspects are becoming scrappier and scrappier. More southerly aspects tend to be smoother, but pose their own dangers of even more obstacles and frozen firm surfaces if the timing is off. Facets continue to form, and in more sheltered north facing areas softer snow can still be found.
We can always hope for another "March Miracle."
After the storm.jpg
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Gazelle
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Re: Looking Like a Dry February

Post by Gazelle » Mon Feb 17, 2020 7:42 pm

we will see! the corn harvest has begun in tahoe area! but better know where you are going? not much snow out there! 20degrees at night around 50 during the day! And yep got voile Objective BC mounted going out tomorrow!
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c9h13no3
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Re: Looking Like a Dry February

Post by c9h13no3 » Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:44 pm

Yeah, the corn harvest is full on. Skied Pyramid Peak this weekend, 1000' of ice, 1500 feet of corn, then mowing down manzanita towards the end. If it's wind sheltered and south facing, it'll probably ski pretty well for a while longer, but things are starting to get thin.
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rs44
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Re: Looking Like a Dry February

Post by rs44 » Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:33 pm

Harlen wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 7:34 pm
Where's the snow?! rs44, your optimistic hope that the high pressure ridge might have moved west, and allowed snow storms to move into our Sierra didn't pan out did it? Damn.
Yep, no such luck! Pacing to be the driest February on record as there's no meaningful precipitation forecast through the month's end. One station has only record 0.02" of snow MTD. Select quotes from Daniel Swain's most recent blog post:
Right now, there are perhaps modest signs that the prevailing ridge could weaken in early March, though there are no clear signs of impending breakdown....At this point, it’s exceptionally unlikely (given the current forecast, and historical precipitation climatology for the rest of the season) that we’ll be able to erase the accumulated precipitation deficit by the end of the rainy season–so it is virtually certain (even with a “Miracle March”) that we’ll end up drier than average this year.


So even if the ridge breaks down in March, we almost certainly don't have enough time left in the rainy season to make up for lost ground snow :/

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Re: Looking Like a Dry February

Post by Wandering Daisy » Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:45 pm

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/java ... =DLYSNOWDP

Southern High Sierra got some significant snow the last 24 hours.

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Re: Looking Like a Dry February

Post by Harlen » Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:40 pm

Sure enough! I checked out the snow level data you provided Nancy, and found that the highest snowfall occurred by Cottonwood Lakes, where 1.8" fell between 2/21 and 2/22, and then 12.1" fell between 2/22 and 2/23. At Charlotte Lake 7" fell yesterday, and another inch the day before. South Lake got 6.9" too. Am I reading this correctly Nancy? Are they measuring the total depth at C.Lakes when it notes: 27.9" 0n the 22nd, and then 40.0" on the 23rd?

On 2/23 the Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center stated:

New snowfall varied greatly yesterday across the forecast zone, with much greater amounts of 7” to the south and trace amounts to the north. NE winds increased yesterday afternoon, and will shift out of the W and NW today continuing in the 20-30mph ideal snow transport range. Where new snow has fallen, fresh sensitive wind slabs will likely be found just below ridgelines, sidewalls of gullies and cross-loaded slopes. Slick underlying conditions could make these slabs less likely to bond, and result in them running farther than expected.

This is great news, thanks for the heads up!

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