High Sierra Topix

Members,

Heads up if you plan to head out this weekend for an extended trip or starting one at the beginning of the following week.
A high-pressure system is building over the Four Corners region, allowing a robust monsoonal wave into the Sierra Nevada beginning on Monday. By Wednesday and especially Thursday, things could get pretty intense, with possible heavy thunderstorms, hail, flash flooding, and new wildfires starting.
Be prepared.

Daily projection of the intensifying monsoonal flow:
Mon: https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rai ... -118.054,7
Tue: https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rai ... -118.054,7
Wed: https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rai ... -118.054,7
Thur: https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rai ... -118.054,7

What is the general accuracy of these models 7-10 days out? I assume it increases as the dates in question get closer (2-3 days).

I am curious because I have a backpacking trip planned for next week and being out-of-state doesn't allow for a lot of flexibility.

Good question, newossab. I'm curious as well. As precaution, I contacted a friend who starts the JMT tomorrow. He decided to pack a poncho just to be safe.

Well I guess that answers my wondering if I should bring a tent or just a tarp Mav. Thanks for the update and of course it will be monsoonal. I'm going in on the 24th with my brother for a 9 day trip up Bear Creek and out at Florence. First full week trip in years that we've been able to do together, so of course it will storm and rain just to remind us of the good old days and to not take so long for the next one. We will still go. Our routes 98% on trail and 9 days makes for a fairly leisurely trip from Bear Diversion to Florence even with a couple forays up the tributaries to try some fishing, and the fact we're old farts. If it's really bad, we'll just hang out on the creek for a week and hike back to where we started. Still will beat the triple digit heat we've had around here lately.

Doing a quick loop out of agnew meadows to 1000 island lake starting on the 18th. Looks like the thunderstorms are expected on the 19th. Figure if it gets too bad, can cover the remaining miles from the shadow lake area back to agnew pretty quick.

Thanks for posting this - I'd also not been aware of this source. I'd been planning to head out on the 26th and will be sure to check this.

For those that have more experience - how long do these sort of conditions persist?

Looks like the monsoonal flow will weaken by Wednesday and then pick up slowly, strengthening again by the weekend into the following week (according to the current long term model).

I have an 8 day trip planned starting on Sunday. Doh.

You should be okay, Schmalz; the monsoonal flow is weakening now, not nearly as strong as predicted earlier on.
Have a fun & safe trip!