SSSdave wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:16 am
Accordingly, that tends to indicate the virus is not as contagious as was thought more possible and rather that contagiousness is more the result of indoor situations where people are together for longer periods. ......... Generally recommendations for being safe outdoors should have included advice for breeze airflow instead of the dumbed down lowest common denominator 6 foot distancing that only makes sense indoors.
1. I mean, it isn't "THAT" contagious. A naive R_O of ~2.5-3.5(median estimates I have seen) is roughly... a fairly contagious but not rampantly so*** (measles is like R_0=20, chickenpox=10+). It's method of spread (Respiratory Droplets) is also much easier contained than a "true" airborne virus that transmits effectively in tiny aerosols. We don't need perfect controls to halt the growth. tradeshows, churches(at least in SK), offices, HOMES, institutional facilities, etc... seem to be the most effective transmission vectors. There's probably a good case to be made for transportation infrastructure too (Subways, airports, etc...) One interesting note is that once one person in a family gets it, it is near impossible to not have everyone in the household get it.
2. Breeze could help droplets stay aloft as well (There's a study in SK where basically those in the path of airflow of HVAC got sick, those on other side didn't). Again, I strongly think there's a good rationale for allowing outdoors recreation, with norms and social pressures to keep distance between household groups, and maintain physical distance. I think campgrounds and trailheads should be open with sanitation protocols in place.
*** Again, what is neat is that if we take an estimated R_0 of 3.0, and as a society we stop 50% of interactions, we're down to 1.5. If we add mask wearing that's ONLY 35% effective(population level), R_E drops below 1.0% and we get a virus that is doomed to burn out. We, collectively, just need to work on finding that balance of activity and mitigation efforts that allows for R_E to be pushed below 1.0, while protecting as many of the most vulnerable as possible.
I'm optimistic that there is a pathway to achieve this.