SEKI October Trip

[clamm]

I'm planning on doing a 4 night SEKI backpacking trip in 2 weeks but I'm concerned about the weather. The forecast says highs of 60s but I'm not sure whether to trust this since we are going pretty high up (Lake 11200 is the highest point on the trip). I'm taking 3 brand-new backpackers with me and I don't want to scar them forever with really cold weather.

Can anyone let me know what to expect? Should I bail on this idea and take them to Emigrant instead? We will bring some warm things but even I don't have experience with colder weather trips. I've been to SEKI several times but only in late August.

Thanks so much!!

[maverick]

Hi clamm,

Welcome to HST!

Despite the ongoing occurrence of a warming trend, it is important to avoid being misled by the temporary weather conditions of this week, since it cannot be assumed that this pattern will persist for an extended period. However, given the unpredictable nature of climate change, the long-term implications remain uncertain.
October is commonly regarded as the transitional period between seasons, characterized by the potential for rapid changes in weather conditions. It is during this month that individuals may encounter difficulties arising from unforeseen meteorological phenomena. If one is resolute in embarking on the journey, particularly in the company of inexperienced individuals, it is advisable to remain at a lower altitude, refrain from venturing too far from the trailhead, diligently monitor the weather prediction provided by the National Weather Service (NWS), and establish a contingency plan for a safe retreat if necessary. Additionally, it is advisable to go for a trailhead with paved roads rather than dirt roads.

[Lenier]

I don't have the experience Maverick has, but just wanted to add my 2 cents.

The Western Divide is a fickle beast. Going to Sequoia at 11k this time of year is a trip you do with the expectation that it could turn into full blown winter at any point. Some excess moisture off some tropical storm 3000 miles away the week before could hit right as you're there and suddenly you've got inches of snow overnight. Microclimates up there can have overnight tempts that plummet far more than any prediction. It can be amazing, it can be intense, or it can be outright dangerous.

[wildhiker]

I don’t know where you are coming from, but if it’s the Bay Area, how about Desolation Wilderness near Lake Tahoe. It has that HighSierra granite landscape, but at elevations of 7 to 8 thousand feet, instead of 10 to 11 thousand. And several trailheads are right off highway 50 or highway 89.
-Phil

[JayOtheMountains]

Quite the opposite advice than above here incoming.

Please do not lead yourselves into an Abline paradox. The best thing I have found in these instances is lots of communication. Perhaps a dinner to plan things out if you can, or a zoom get-together to plan it out.

Go for it. Tell your partners to bring added layers for when it gets cold. You should expect temps in the 20s at night (regardless, you should just plan to be in tent at dark). You should expect to find warmth only in direct sun. Bring some extra calories to chomp on to keep fueled for the colder temps. Yes, watch the weather, but don't cancel it because a chicken cried wolf at a yet-to-happen weather event. Plan it until you can't anymore - meaning plan towards your goal and change what you carry or intend to do; you should have a conversation with your partners to establish no-go criteria and stick to it. Shorten the trip if you can along the same trail, if needed, if it's a loop trip then perhaps change it to an out-and-back. But don't give up on your plan! Have a backup plan just in case, and plan to that too. Tell someone where you're going so they know where to look just in case.

I know what I'm capable of. I know what I have gear for.
I know what my partners are capable of; I know what they have gear for.
As long as heavy snow isn't in the forecast... give it a chance? Aside from the time in camp, you're likely going to be moving the entire time and it won't seem as cold because you're generating heat while you're moving. Yer gonna sweat regardless of what temp it is outside. I've been a sweaty mess at -10F as well as at 100F. Doesn't matter, you're going to generate heat.


You need to be very communicative with your partners about conditions and expectations. Just be understanding that you may have to be a bit more hands-on with ensuring your partners are ready to take it on. Don't have your partners go purchase gear just for this, if you or they don't have it perhaps this isn't the trip to take.

October backpacking can be really rewarding. Cool crisp days. Smaller crowds. Multi-colored landscapes. Frost in the morning. Light snow on the ground, maybe. I've had some spectacular fall trips, some that ended up with 4-5 inches of snow on the ground overnight and some that ended up outright magical. We planned for the colder weather. We brought extra layers. We brought some extra food. We dressed layered to accommodate for changes. Sure, the pack was a little heavier but the trip was worth it.

You should go. If anything you can bail after the first night. I bet you won't.

[Wandering Daisy]

Do not park your car where the road could be closed if a storm comes in (for example, Sonora Pass). Do not go to places that are difficult and long to get out of if it snows. For example, I was at Big Brewer Lake (off-trail difficult to get to location) when a snowstorm hit. I got out but it was really touch and go at times and I have had extensive winter experience. I was solo but would never have taken anyone who did not have lots of cold weather and snow experience. I made it to Sphinx Creek in the snow. Next day was sunny and you would not have guessed it had stormed. Even a 24-hour storm can be difficult. On the other hand, say you were at Hamilton Lake. Exit from there is all on a good trail. Trailhead at Crescent Meadow is low enough that closure is very unlikely.

So, SEKI may be fine depending on exactly where you are going. Desolation or Emigrant are not per-se sure bets for no snow. Again, it depends on exactly where you go and where storms are coming from.

As for the weather forecast, read the details where the certainty of the forecast is discussed. Anything more than 3-4 days out may be quite uncertain. Check several different sources.

Problem with last minute changes may be difficulty getting permits. SEKI rangers have in my experience been very flexible about changing routes due to safety concerns. Emigrant lets you get permits at the ranger station, without reservations. Be sure when they will be open.

[Lenier]

I should have added more onto my comment - I'm in agreement with Daisy and Jay. Don't cancel, just be prepared for sudden winter conditions and have backup plans!

[texan]

I should have added more onto my comment - I'm in agreement with Daisy and Jay. Don't cancel, just be prepared for sudden winter conditions and have backup plans!

You just have to be prepared, we went day hiking and fishing out of Leavitt Meadows in October some 35 years ago and the forecast was good. Once we got to the lake we had some mild flurries before noon but the fishing was so good we stayed(MISTAKE!). Late afternoon it starting snowing big time and by the time we got back to the car there was over a foot of snow on the ground. Luckily Cal Trans or Forest Service only locked the gate at the bottom of the mountain just past the Marine base at Pickel Meadows and I was able to get by my Toyota Corolla around the locked gate. Also, I was lucky that the Leavitt Meadows campground was closed and I had to park my car at the backpackers parking lot on HWY108. If I would have been able to park my car at the bottom of the campground by the bridge where day hikers can park, there's no way I would have made it up that hill with all of the snow. You just have to be prepared and know when its time to bail or not.

Texan

[druid]

I'm headed up tomorrow for a multi-day trip in the same general area that I think you're planning for. The forecast for 11000 feet for the next few days is a high around 50F, described as being warmer than normal weather. So I definitely wouldn't expect highs in the 60s. I also wouldn't trust any forecast for mountain weather two weeks in advance, no matter what the source. But if the forecast a day or two before you leave looks good, and you're equipped for cool days and cold nights, and you stay within a day's hike of the trailhead (Tableland would probably qualify), and you're prepared to change plans and bail immediately if the weather turns bad, then by all means go for it! I'm definitely looking forward to my own upcoming October SEKI trip.