Corona Virus

[wildhiker]

Re: campgrounds closing in Death Valley NP.

The best night we spent camping in Death Valley NP was an undeveloped site off the dirt road in Panamint Valley in March 2005. No one around for miles. Great view of empty wilderness. Bring your own water.
-Phil

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[c9h13no3]

@Wandering Daisy Daisy I'd venture that on average, small towns have less cases per capita than big cities. And the low hospital resources argument is a bit silly: ventilators and patients are mobile. This isn't a "resources in town X are limited" problem, this is a "resources in the world" are limited problem. The whole planet can't get sick at once.

The main thing they're trying to avoid is more over crowding. Many outdoor tourism spots are worried they'll see crowds, as many treat this like a vacation. And quite often, people interact more when they travel: They get gas more, eat at restaurants, stay in hotels, go to busy places.

There's also a lot of plain old fear, they don't want sick city people in their town.

I've been hiking/trail running a lot this past week. But I drive there, do my hike, drive home. I skip my victory Slurpee from 7-11, and my gas station is my house.

[balzaccom]

Adrenaline, you wrote: "@Wandering Daisy Daisy I'd venture that on average, small towns have less cases per capita than big cities. And the low hospital resources argument is a bit silly: ventilators and patients are mobile. This isn't a "resources in town X are limited" problem, this is a "resources in the world" are limited problem. The whole planet can't get sick at once."

Ummm. No evidence that smaller towns have a lower incidence per capita. In Italy the spread began in a very small town. The low hospital resource issue is absolutely a concern in smaller communities. They have fewer and less sophisticated health facilities to begin with--often only one or two ambulances for the whole town, limited bed and ICU capabilities. And if one of those ambulances is used to take someone to a bigger hospital an hour or two away, it's not available to any local resident who needs it.

I agree with you that this is a whole world problem--but it accentuates the issues that already exist for health care in smaller communities.

[Wandering Daisy]

C9- opinions aside, I lived for 20+ years in Wyoming. 10 cases in a town of 10,000 certainly IS more per-capita than anything we are seeing here. Of course this is one town, not the entire state. There certainly are advantages of living in a sparsely populated state, but heath care is not one of them. The economics of medical infrastructure simply does not allow small towns to serve more than the basic, normal level of sickness. When your tiny hospital cannot treat you, the nearest hospital is likely 100 miles or more away. I have lived in towns where the nearest town of any size was 70 miles away.

These small communities are legitimately worried about visitors stressing an already stressed medical facility. It is not fear, it is reality. Since tourism is a big economic driver in many small towns near mountains or National Parks, they get hit either way; let tourism continue and overwhelm their medical system, or not let tourism and take a big economic hit. For towns like Moab, and those near Zion, spring is a peak tourist time so limiting tourism is an unfortunate necessity. But when you are a one-industry town (tourism) the impact is devastating and you cannot "work from home". Larger cities have a bit more economic diversity.

A lot of unknowns and uncertainty and no good choices right now.

I do worry a bit about giving someone like Trump (regardless of your political orientation) who has autocratic tendencies "war powers". Hopefully with his distaste for details and his short attention span, he will let others more qualified take care of the nitty-gritty response to this crisis.

On a lighter note, read in the paper today that Newsom's family with 4 kids are down to one-day's supply of toilet paper. Here is an opportunity for someone who wants to influence government to send them a box of TP!

[maiathebee]

I packed up my trailer and dogs in Oakland and drove to Tahoe on Thursday, March 12, 4 days before the shelter in place order. Currently staying with a friend up here, trailer in the driveway. I have food and supplies to boondock (not at a campground) for at least 2 weeks. Haven't yet decided what I'm going to do. Seems like everything changes every day. Last Thursday seems like a lifetime ago even though it's only a week.

I don't think boondocking is a problem. It's the same as staying in your house. For the travel to get somewhere, though, you are going to need to get gas, maybe water, maybe something else. So that's where the concern of transmission lies. Or if your outdoor activity involves lots of hands touching things (e.g. climbing). Lucky me I'm just a lowly hiker.

Also worth noting is the relative risk of injury / need of SAR/healthcare resources in whatever your outdoor sport is. We should all work to minimize risk of non-coronavirus emergency right now to not divert healthcare resources from the fight against coronavirus. Snowshoeing? Pretty low risk. Alpine mountaineering? Higher.

If I do leave Tahoe to go boondock somewhere, I plan to wipe down gas pumps / door handles / etc with Clorox wipes before and after I use them. I won't be going to sit inside restaurants or coffee shops, even if the weather is ****. I'll just read in my trailer + cuddle my dogs. Hope other people practice the same community respect.

[grampy]

I packed up my trailer ... Currently staying with a friend up here, trailer in the driveway. I have food and supplies to boondock (not at a campground) for at least 2 weeks. Haven't yet decided what I'm going to do ...

Hey Maia -
Hopefully whatever “shelter in place” restrictions are in effect for the Bay Area will allow you to at least return to your home. Sorry you are in this predicament.
While you’re waiting for information, any chance you have any trip reports you’ve been procrastinating on finishing ?
... SORRY, was that too soon ?

[maverick]

56% of Californian's are projected to be infected, in an 8 week period, says Gov. Newsom.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/19/ ... ek-period/

[maiathebee]

Hey Maia -
Hopefully whatever “shelter in place” restrictions are in effect for the Bay Area will allow you to at least return to your home. Sorry you are in this predicament.

Yes, the restrictions do allow me to go back. But I'm not sure that makes a lot of sense right now? I'm already out here. idk. Wild times.

While you’re waiting for information, any chance you have any trip reports you’ve been procrastinating on finishing ?
... SORRY, was that too soon ?

hahaha i *wish* I had more time! I'm a college professor and now I have to spend a ton more hours per week converting my course to online delivery. SOMEday I'll get to those trip reports!

[SSSdave]

There are logical reasons for those urban residents with vehicles and supplies able to do so, to be ready to boondock out in remote rural areas given more extreme scenarios none of us hope happens. This is something we can mention on this forum without inciting panic as we are a small web community. Although no one is predicting what might happen with behaviors if large numbers of people in cities become so sick that resources like medical supplies and especially food become scarce, it is something in the back of minds of many if civilization degenerates. The run on guns and ammo by ordinary previous non gun owners shows how many are worrying. And that is an understandable response because it is true there are significant numbers of people with small minds in our culture without much of a moral or ethical nature, that as soon as others display more selfish primitive behaviors, if they have weapons may start to use them likewise to get what they want causing chaos and anarchy as is fictionalized in books and movies. By time that happens, local rural communities hearing how such residents are fleeing will begin blocking their highways and roads in some cases causing massive gridlock.

Just like with the run on store supplies that ballooned beginning early last week, those that can see such coming and have prepared during this current civil period where resources are still available, have that option. One can choose to remain within their urban world in what might rise to a martial law state with police and military deployed on streets, however such institutions also will suffer if large percentages become ill themselves. Personally I don't trust what average urban people may resort to versus average long time rural Christian folk if food becomes scarce. We might think our urban homes are relatively safe but consider how easy it would be for gangs of immoral thugs looking for food,weapons, and valuables to enter 98% of our residences not through locked front doors but rather with bricks through windows.

One of the items I need is a couple more gallon cans of white gas. As an old landscape photographer that has extensively disperse camped within the state, I'm familiar with how to live out of my vehicle in that way as are many within this community. We here in the north state with our all year rivers have many more options available versus those to the south where the arid climate adds a lack of natural water sources to survival issues. Gasoline could become an issue so someone escaping out to rural areas would need to figure out where to go well before the situation became serious as they might otherwise become stuck without fuel. Much much more of course, we don't need to go into herein but this post does serve a purpose early during this event getting some of you to start thinking of what to do before worst scenarios become too late.

[commonloon]

Many of the media outlets have repeated Gov Newsom's 56% infected comments w/o mentioning that did not include mitigation measures:

"A spokesperson for the governor later clarified the projection included zero mitigation efforts such as the Bay Area’s shutdown of non-essential businesses to decrease contact between residents."

Indeed most of the models have been simplified. Here are a couple of (I think) good reads:

https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus ... RJNJMtNo8I

https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/arti ... PCaUkkdPzE

Regarding the 56%. As has been said, we need mitigation measures to ensure than our health care systems aren't overloaded. Unless we get an early vaccine or antivirals that work, we could see ~56% being infected over time. The curve gets flatter, but the area under the curve remains the same (with simple modeling). What changes with slowing it down is that we don't have lots more deaths. We will also be able to apply what we learn more and more over time to treatment.

I wish I had an RV or Van, etc. I think boondocking, etc. somewhere remote might be a great way to ride this out. Stay healthy everyone!